While Canada’s economy recorded its largest-ever annual GDP drop of 5.1% last year, it’s also on track to post a comeback in Q4, which could force the Bank of Canada’s hand in reining inflation in sooner than anticipated.

“That carries potentially strong policy implications for the Bank of Canada that is increasingly looking as if it over-committed itself to keeping rates on hold until 2023,” wrote Scotiabank economist Derek Holt in a recent research note.

While GDP data isn’t out for December yet, the fourth quarter is on track to post a gain of 7.8%, according to estimates.

Holt added that based on preliminary Q4 data, the first quarter now has roughly 1.7% annualized GDP “baked” into it. That would be in stark contrast to the 2.5% contraction forecast by the Bank of Canada in its January Monetary Policy Report.

Additionally, some say the federal government’s talk of up to $100 billion in new stimulus spending over the next three years could contribute to over-stimulating demand.

“A key risk is that the proposed $70-100 (billion) in three-year stimulus funds will outlive their need, at least when it comes to boosting demand after 2021,” wrote CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld.

Implications for interest rates

All of this translates into the potential for the need to raise interest rates earlier than the 2023 timeframe that has been repeated in BoC messaging in recent months.

“If Canada’s economy outperformed expectations without vaccines, then just imagine how it might perform as herd immunity approaches by fall and what that may come to mean for monetary policy,” Holt added.

“With average core inflation trending around the 1.6–1.7% range and just tenths beneath the 2% target, the BoC might wind up on its inflation target or above it and sooner than it thinks.”

Shenfeld drew the same conclusion, saying that if enough demand is added post-2021, and the economy could close in on full employment, “with additional government spending being offset by an earlier need to hike interest rates to contain inflation.”

What Should Borrowers be Thinking About?

Holt’s advice to those who are heavily indebted is to plan their finances on the basis of the BoC starting to hike rates “considerably sooner” than 2023.

“If slack is eliminated into next year and inflation returns closer to target, then there should be little compelling reason for why the BoC would still be sitting on such emergency levels of stimulus if the emergency has long passed,” he wrote.

This may also give new homebuyers reason for pause if they’re considering getting a variable mortgage rate. With variable-rate mortgages priced as little as 30 basis points below certain fixed-rate mortgages, it could take just one Bank of Canada rate hike for that edge to all but disappear.

For that reason, many have already been choosing the security of today’s historically low fixed rates.

But they too could start to rise in short order at the first sign that a recovery is taking hold.

“If the BoC believes that our economic recovery has reached a more sustainable footing, it will begin to taper its (Quantitative Easing) purchases (of bonds), and when that happens, it is expected that our government bond yields, and the fixed mortgage rates that are priced on them, will rise in response,” wrote Dave Larock of Integrated Mortgage Planners Inc.

“While it may not be intuitive at first glance, changes in the BoC’s outlook are therefore likely to impact our fixed mortgage rates well before they impact our variable rates.”

article written by Steve Huebl, Canadian Mortgage Trends

We all heard realtors say location location location …. well us mortgage folks say kind of the same thing but different. Property Property Property. What you buy can have huge impact on your lender and approval. Check out this great article from my marketing team.

It’s All About The Property.

When your mortgage application goes through the approval process, they are not only looking at you, but also the property in question. In fact, sometimes when an application is denied it has nothing to do with you, and everything to do with the property.

To improve your chances of success when it comes to financing, there are three main things to consider:

1. The type of property
2. The location of the property
3. The usage of the property

Let’s take a look at some of the specifics for each of these considerations.

Type of Property

There are various types of properties when it comes to home ownership – detached houses, semi-detached, condos, townhouse, duplex, carriage or heritage home. Depending on the type of property you have chosen, there may be specific considerations.

Condominiums

When it comes to condo properties, the lender (and potentially the insurer) will consider the age of the building. In addition, they will look at maintenance history (or lack thereof), as well as the location for marketability. Some lenders may have stipulations that limit themselves to buildings with a certain number of units, or past a certain age.

If the condo you wish to buy is lacking a depreciation report, has a low contingency fund or large special levies pending, these will be red flags for the lender. Any of these situations will require a more thorough review. These items should also serve as strong considerations for you as it indicates the management (or lack of) for that condo building.

Additional Units

If you are looking at a property with additional units, it is important to consider that buildings with over four units, are considered a ‘commercial’ property and would be evaluated on that basis.

Heritage Homes

Whether registered or designated, heritage homes require a more detailed review and often come with special considerations for financing.

Leasehold or Co-op Properties

These properties also have specific requirements, particularly when it comes to the maximum loan-to-value which means they will require a larger down payment. These types of properties also typically call for additional documentation, and may have varying interest rates.

If you shift from a standard condo to a lease-hold property, your down payment amount will likely change. If you want to move to a small rural town or a small island, there will be fewer options. In addition, you may have to pay a higher rate as well as provide more documentation on the property.

Location Considerations

You’ve heard it before – location, location, location! Location matters just as much to the potential homeowner as it does the lender. Some things to keep in mind when it comes to location include:

Potential Resale Value

If the location limits the potential resale value for the building, lenders may not provide financial approval on that property. This is due to the increased risk if the borrower defaults. In that case, the lender may not be able to foreclose the property and get enough funds back due to the low resale. That said, some lenders may allow these properties but they might reduce the loan amount if the building is located outside of a major market area, or they may add a premium to the interest rate.

Rural Considerations

For properties with water access only, or with no access to municipal utilities (heat, water, electricity, sewage), there will be additional requirements to assess lender risk. These requirements might include: Insurance coverage, water testing, septic tank inspection, seasonal access and condition of the property.

Transfer to Another Province

It is also important to note that if you purchase a home in one Province and are transferred or move to a different province, some lenders won’t be able to port the mortgage due to being provincially based.

Usage Considerations

The use of the property can include things such as personal, investment, recreational, agricultural and also consider previous activities. A few things to keep in mind are:

Condominiums

If you are looking at purchasing a condo on a property that has either a commercial component in the building (such as shops on the first floor), or allowable space in the unit for businesses (live/work designation), you may have limited lender options. In some cases, lenders will avoid these types of properties at all costs, while others may require approval from the insurer (i.e. CMHC).

Renovation Required

If the property requires renovations, the extent of the upgrades, as well as the property value will be taken into consideration.

Previous Grow-Ops

Homes that previously existed as grow-ops, have special lending options. These typically come with higher interest rates and costs due to decreased value.

Rental Suites

For owner-occupied homes that contain rental suites, it is important to consider potential rental income. If the house is purchased for investment, rental income is automatically considered. This can result in a different interest rate than simply an owner-occupied dwelling. In these cases, the rental income can also increase the resale value of the property. However, an appraisal of the property must be conducted and reviewed to ensure the condition. This will also uncover whether any renovations were completed to add value.

Second Properties

Purchasing a second home for recreational use will require a review to determine if it is seasonal or year-round access.

Before you begin your home search, it is best to discuss your future plans with a Dominion Lending Centres Mortgage Professional. This will ensure you receive accurate information to understand the specific requirements your potential property might require. Seeking expert advice early on will also give you ample time to find the right fit! This will also ensure you can submit a full financing review before subject removal on a purchase.

Written by Dominion Lending Centres

Ultimate Checklist for Selling Your Home.

Selling your home can be an extremely stressful experience. Between thinking about moving logistics and financials, it’s easy to miss the small details in between the process.

With that in mind, we’ve built this checklist for selling your home to help you keep track of the things that will get a potential buyer interested. Turns out, it’s not as simple as just fluffing pillows or doing a light dusting. “Put your buyer’s hat on and walk through your home like it is the first time,” Marilou Young, an Accredited Staging Professional and an Associate Broker with Virtual Properties Realty in the metropolitan Atlanta area, told Forbes.

Below is the ultimate checklist for selling your home.

Get familiar with the paperwork

For home sellers interested in the history of the house, make sure you’ve got all the information handy; this can include paperwork on renovations, property tax receipts, deeds and transferable warranties.

Getting the price right

According to HGTV, it can be helpful to do some market research on what homes in your area are selling for- then shave 15 to 20 percent off that. This way, you attract multiple buyers who can end up outbidding each other and bringing up the price. While that can seem like a risky move, it could work in the competitive markets of big Canadian cities.

Depersonalize and declutter

You want potential buyers to see themselves in the space, which is hard to do if you have family photos on the wall or personal items around. This would be a good time to start putting items in storage or try to keep your personal items out of sight. At the same time, you’re also ensuring that you’re keeping your house tidy—a must if you want to make your home sellable. Check around the house for dirt, stains or small cracks you might be able to fix. And if you have pets, make sure their litter boxes and play areas are also clean and odour-free.

Find a qualified realtor

Realtors can be helpful to take some of the processes off your plate, including marketing your home and arranging open houses. If you do go this route, none of this list will matter if you decide to work with a realtor that doesn’t know the market inside out. You can search their name on the Real Estate Institute of Canada to ensure that they’re qualified, and meet with them to see if you mesh and understand how they price your unit. At Proptalk, we also have this handy guide for more details.

Don’t skip the home inspection

While presenting an unconditional offer may win you the home of your dreams, it can also end up costing you more than you expected. If you’re mortgaged to the max, you can’t afford surprises like repairs or replacements that you haven’t already budgeted for. Consider a Home Protection Plan that includes an 18-month warranty and up to $20,000 in warranty coverage for major household features such as foundation, roof, heating and cooling.

Written by First Canadian Title for DLC